Mr.Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of batdongsan.com.vn, points out that the current real estate market situation in Vietnam resembles a squeezed coil spring; although it is currently tightly squeezed, it has the potential to, and it will, bounce back strongly, once the COVID-19 pandemic is under control.
According to Mr. Quoc Anh, through observing market movements during the past year, it can be seen that market demand for real estates has increased rapidly and vigorously, alongside which there is a rising number of new investors entering the market. Therefore, he believes there is high potential for the market to regain momentum, once the impacts of the pandemic subside. Illustrating his point, he compares the market to a squeezed coil spring, ready to bounce back whenever it is released.
"The most obvious proof is that in the last 3 waves of the pandemic, right after most provinces managed to control the spread, market demand immediately picked up; the demand for housing, especially for residential land and foundation soil saw an increase at an unprecedented rate." Mr. Quoc Anh states.
Mr. Quoc Anh identify that by looking at the graph simulating the level of real estate investors' interest in the market, the key takeaway is that if the COVID-19 pandemic situation is a straight line, investor's interest tends to stick closely to this line, despite irregular bouts of ups and downs.
In particular, in the first 3 months of 2021, the demand for real estates across the country rose by 37% compared to the same period in 2020. Furthermore, search interest was even higher than the peak period of 2018 – 2019, recording an increase of 378%.
 

Graph 1: Simulating the relation between the COVID infection rate and the level of search interest in real estates (aggregated by number of searches recorded on batdongsan.com.vn)
 
According to Mr. Quoc Anh, the above graph which shows investor’s search interest in real estates clearly demonstrates that although interest level dipped significantly during the peak of the first 3 waves, it bounced back significantly right afterwards, especially as the market recovered from the 3^rd wave. By the time the 4th wave of the pandemic arrived, the level of interest generally flattened back to its non-peak level. This shows that market sentiment towards real estates continues to be solidified despite news and impacts of new outbreaks.
Commenting on whether real estate prices in the last few months of the year will pick up pace, the Deputy General Director of batdongsan.com.vn said this is entirely possible when the pandemic is under control. Considering real estate remains as a particularly lucrative investment channel, it is safe to assume that the demand is only temporarily compressed and will bounce back even stronger in the right conditions.
 

Graph 2: Expected growth of search interest in real estates in the latter half of 2021
 
Mr. Quoc Anh also provided lessons from the global real estate market, such as the US and Australia. Both saw a double-digit increase in real estate prices right in the midst of the pandemic. Particularly, as the number of vaccinated people increases, the real estate market continues to grow even more strongly.
"Currently, we are accelerating the pace of vaccination. I believe the pandemic will soon be under control, possibly in the third quarter of this year. Right after that, the market will recover and bounce back very quickly. When the real estate balloon is compressed for too long, it will bounce back quickly and strongly, that's the nature of the market," comments Mr. Quoc Anh.

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